Edmonton Oilers training camp expectations: Who gets cut, and when?

Today, the Oilers training camp roster sits at 62 names (by my count) . In just over two weeks, the roster will be pared down to a final group of 23 (or slightly more ,depending on injuries) – the players who will represent Edmonton on the opening night of the 2013-14 NHL season.

This year I decided to try something a little different, setting benchmarks for when certain players might be cut from camp. Obviously, this shouldn’t be taken too seriously – everything depends on player performance and the coaching staff’s perception of that performance, but laying out expectations beforehand gives us an idea of which players are on the rise and which are falling back. An emerging prospect often serves notice in training camp, even if he doesn’t make the final team, by staying later than most would have predicted; similarly a young player falling down the depth chart can be indicated during this time – as, for example, Alex Plante did during training camp in 2011-12.

With the caveat that this is less actual prediction and more a line in the sand for the players involved, here’s how I group the 62 players in camp:

First cuts: the youngest prospects and the unsigned tryouts. In this year’s group, the likely candidates would include Ben Betker, Ty Bilcke, Greg Chase, Jackson Houck, Mitch Moroz, Reid Petryk, Kyle Platzer and Ty Rimmer – a total of eight cuts. Of the prospects, Mitch Moroz probably has the best chance of sticking around simply due to age, while Rimmer stands out as a potential ECHL organizational option this year.

Second cuts: exceptional junior players. The guys who stand out to me as players the Oilers might want to hold on to a little longer than the other juniors are Jujhar Khaira, Darnell Nurse and Marco Roy, for a total of three cuts. Khaira might surprise and contend for a professional job, which would extend his stay in camp.

Third cuts: the bottom end of the professional roster. These are the players who are reasonably new to the professional ranks, bound for the ECHL or depth minutes in the AHL. My list is nine players long: Cameron Abney, Tyler Bunz, Travis Ewanyk, Austin Fyten, Kale Kessy, Joey Leach, Ryan Martindale, David Musil and C.J. Stretch. Martindale and Musil strike me as the most plausible candidates to stick around longer.

Fourth cuts: AHL’ers. These are solid professionals, players on AHL deals and prospects with some experience or pedigree but minimal chance at NHL minutes this year. I have a six-name list: Matt Ford, Martin Gernat, Curtis Hamilton, Brad Hunt, Derek Nesbitt and Olivier Roy. Hunt and Gernat on defence strike me as the guys who might surprise.

Fifth cuts: recall candidates. A step above the AHL’ers, and a step below the final cuts – these players are all call-up options and every year it seems like one of these guys makes a push into the group of final cuts. Richard Bachman, Brandon Davidson, Taylor Fedun, Oscar Klefbom, Martin Marincin, Andrew Miller and Tyler Pitlick are the seven names I categorize in this group. Lots of quality defencemen in the mix here, and my inclusion of Klefbom might surprise but I do see him as a step below the top-nine in the organization.

Sixth cuts: the final decisions. These are the guys who almost make the team – and given that there’s always an injury or two, some of them inevitably do. In this group are Will Acton, Mark Arcobello, Mike Brown, Ryan Hamilton, Linus Omark and Philip Larsen. As I see it today, the best bet is on Acton and Arcobello losing the fourth line centre job to Anton Lander, with Brown, Hamilton and Omark finishing behind Ben Eager for the spare forward role and Larsen the odd man out on defence.

The final roster: The other 23 players in training camp. Eager and Lander face extremely tough challenges but I think they win the day up front, while Corey Potter and Anton Belov come in ahead of Larsen. It may not go that way, and particularly not if the Oilers decide to run with 14 forwards, but that’s what strikes me as likely to day.